Category: International Relations
The Week In Review: 4/12/09
Lost in Space
North Korea has failed again in its attempt to launch an object into orbit. I wonder if they should just give it up. Leader Kim il Jong should follow the lead of his compatriots to the south. Start with automobiles and work his way up. Can you spell Hyundai?
Pardon Me
Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori was sentenced to 25 years in prison for his role in human rights abuses in the 1990’s. He probably will serve just a fraction of his sentence should his daughter, Keiko, win in her bid for the presidency in 2011. She is the current front runner. So much for justice.
Welcome Aboard
Staying in the Americas, the Fifth Summit of the Americas opens this week in Trinidad and Tobago. The island nation expects 6,000 dignitaries, journalists and other visitors. The problem is that they only have about 1,700 hotel rooms on the islands. The solution: Chartered cruise ships. The question is which ambassador gets stuck in the bottom bunk?
Do As I Say… Not as I…
Fifteen years ago, the first Summit of the Americas was held in Miami. The meeting produced a declaration against corruption that all nations signed. The result? Of the 34 signatories, nearly one-third have faced jail time, are under indictment or on the run. Way to go Americas!
Shake It Like a Polarizing Figure
A recent Pew Poll has found that President Obama is a polarizing figure. Republican talkers have made a big deal of this citing how few Republicans support the President. Why am I not surprised? Only George W. Bush managed to unite both the Republicans and Democrats… against his own policies.
Inherited Wars
President Obama has a crisis on his hands. No, not Iraq or Afghanistan but of all things… Pirates. Reportedly, pirates off the coast of Somalia are holding an American captain hostage. Yet, another conflict inherited by the President from a past administration – Not the Bush Administration but the Jefferson Adminsitration.
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The world may be a funny place… but it’s the only one we have.
Have a great week!
My Friends Blake & Khalid Kelly and the Pre-9/11 World I Miss
The year was 1997 and I was living in a pillbox sized apartment on a building rooftop in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. On one warm and balmy evening, I and two expatriate friends of mine, Blake, an American and Terry, an Irishman, sat on plastic chairs on the roof as we did as usual to talk and pass the time away. We had met a year earlier upon arriving at King Khalid International Airport. We had decided to leave the confines of our cozy homelands seeking good tax-free salaries and adventure. We were all recruited by the leading hospital and research center in Saudi Arabia. It seemed like a good idea at the time and we embraced the challenge.
As we idled the night away gabbing, we could see the flying saucer shaped building that housed the Saudi Ministry of Interior a few blocks away. The building was off the main highway in Riyadh, the architecture odd – but it was a marvel to look at especially at night. Our roof top vantage point made it a sight to behold.
Ministry of Interior in Riyadh (Photo credit http://www.saudi.net)
Our conversations were usually deep, philosophical, and apocalyptic in nature. We would discuss politics, history, war, and matters of religion. The conservative nature of our host country’s culture left us very few options for amusement and diversion. There were no pubs or movie theatres. Co-mingling of the sexes was prohibited unless on the grounds of a foreign embassy. Alcohol possession and consumption was also illegal. This too was remedied with a prized invitation to an embassy.
We spoke at length about Islam. After all, we were living in a conservative Islamic country. As we conversed into the night, I recall Blake asking me, if the U.S. will declare Islam our next mortal enemy, much like we did with communism in years past. I responded, “Absolutely… we cannot live in a world without an enemy.” Terry, with his Irish accent, retorted with a high pitched, “You’re joking!” And the conversation continued until the early morning hours. Little did we know how prophetic our conversation would be.
In the twelve years since, we have witnessed the following:
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Side-Hamed Algeria Massacre (1997)
- Nairobi and Dar es Salaam embassy bombings (1998)
- Apartment bombings in Russia by Chechen separatists (1999)
- USS Cole (2000)
- 9/11/2001
- Bali bombings (2001)
- 3/11/2004 Train bombings in Madrid
- 7/7/05 bombings in London
- Mumbai bombings (2008)
- Wars, invasions, bombings, and insurgent movements in Afghanistan, Iraq, Russia, Chechnya, Israel/West Bank/Gaza, Lebanon, Pakistan, India, Philippines, and Indonesia among others, that has left hundreds of thousands (perhaps many more) dead and injured.
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Yesterday, while in Turkey, President Barack Obama declared that the United States is neither at war nor an enemy of Islam. I am sure that the global jihadists will dismiss this statement. Many in this country will characterize his overture as appeasement and wishful thinking.
I, for one, take the President at his word. It is time for a fresh global initiative. Muslims make up nearly ¼ of the world’s population or about 1.6 billion followers. Acknowledging their concerns on a global level is absolutely the correct and intelligent thing to do if peace is the ultimate objective. And although there will be many who would want to continue the “wild west” approach to dealing with what they consider “outlaws”, it is obvious that responding violently to violence just creates more violence. Only firm diplomacy can end this conflict. We must negotiate from a position of strength but we also must understand the deep rooted skepticism of the Muslim world. President Bush’s characterization of the war on terror as a “crusade” offended millions – for many, the damage irreparable. But we must continue to explore all avenues and work towards a lasting reconciliation.
President Obama’s declaration is a great starting point. The arrogance of past administrations must be discarded along with the penchant for group think and saber-rattling. Continuation of this hubris will prove disastrous in dealing with the Iranian nuclear situation, one that the Eastern world is watching intently.
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Yes, much has transpired since that fateful conversation overlooking the Ministry of Interior in Riyadh in 1997. As fate would have it, the world and our lives took many dramatic turns.
I returned to the U.S. in 1999. I ran into legal problems (I’ll explain later in a future post) and left the region – disgraced and dispirited but happy to have experienced life in the kingdom.
Blake passed away while on vacation in the U.S. in 2000. A few weeks before his death he sent me an email telling me of his vacation plans. I have read this final email hundreds of times in the years since his death. I cry every time.
Terry also ran into legal problems. He converted to Islam, returned to the U.K. as Khalid Kelly and became an outspoken radical. Last year, he went into hiding and his whereabouts today are unknown. It has been more than a decade since we last spoke. I never met Khalid. The fun loving, open-minded Terry I had come to know in Riyadh is also gone.
Here’s to my old friends… Blake, Terry, and the pre-9/11 world I knew and loved.
I miss you all. With any luck I might just get to experience a pre-9/11 world once again.
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Grading President Obama’s European Trip
As President Obama continues his presidential debut tour in Europe, there a few things worth noticing that highlight the nature of his management style thus giving us some insight into what to expect through out the rest of his presidential tenure.
Like it or not, the President has the charisma and political charm to disarm the fiercest of his opponents. His seeming non-confrontational style is a refreshing and savvy change to that of the outlaw “bring them on” style of his predecessor. To have mediated a dispute between diplomatic France and power house China reaffirmed the President’s campaign assertions that he was indeed ready to lead despite his thin foreign policy resume. Who do you want getting that 3:00 a.m. call now?
Mr. Obama has characterized America’s attitude towards Europe and the world as “arrogant”. On the other hand, he mildly scolded the Europeans for their anti-American sentiments. Again, the President has challenged these sociopolitical realities head on. Could you imagine Presidents Bush or Reagan taking this approach? By making others feel like equals, Mr. Obama has strategically captured the political high ground. In a world on the brink of economic and political collapse, Mr. Obama has stealthily assumed the mantle of global statesman. Mark my words, the President is laying the groundwork for a diplomatic solution to the complex Iranian situation. Do not be surprised if there is a major break through before the Iranian presidential elections this June.
During his town hall gathering in Strasbourg France, Mr. Obama delighted the crowd with his self-deprecating humor and wit. He has, in effect, humanized the presidency and in turn, humanized our nation in the eyes of the world. (Some thing the world needed to see badly) He pauses contemplatively while answering unscreened questions. There is nothing pretentious about his performances. He does not appear evasive in his responses. The Republicans mock the President for his lack of polish when not using a teleprompter. Yet, when the President improvises, he is confident, informed, and above all, articulate, reducing the Republican talking point to nothing short of hollow whining.
While in Europe, the President has yet to give any world leader a back rub and has managed not to run over police officers while riding bicycle. There have been no reports of the President throwing up on any one’s lap. He has not mispronounced any one’s name and has managed to correctly conjugate verbs.
As ludicrous as this may sound the derisive accusations by Republicans that Mr. Obama had messianic qualities may not have been too crazy after all.
In short, his performance to date has been brilliant.
His partial grade for this trip: A+
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Iran’s Nuclear Program; Obama and Israel
If the maps were different?
Imagine for one second if the Russians had invaded and installed friendly regimes in both Canada and Mexico. Also imagine if both these North American nations were occupied by Russian forces. Then add to that a Russian missile presence in Honduras and possible Russian controlled nuclear arms in Cuba. Pretty scary thought right? Now replace Canada, Mexico, Honduras and Cuba with Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey and Israel and you have the actual real life scenario that Iran confronts.
In a previous blog piece about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, I explored the evolution of Iran’s program and how the West has generally mishandled it. Now, in 2009, the stakes are much higher and the reality of a nuclear Iran is much closer to reality. The ability for Iran to deliver a nuclear payload has been greatly improved with the successful launch of a space orbiting satellite earlier this month. Despite the assertions of western intelligence sources that Iran has exhausted its nuclear materials, the Iranian program continues to evolve.
What should Obama do?
Once the Obama Administration settles into Washington and the economic situation begins to settle down, the issue of Iran must take center stage. It is in the best interest for all parties that cooler heads prevail in the region. The fact that the United States remains embroiled in Iraq and in Afghanistan reduces the appearance of American sincerity in any type of political negotiation. The era of American arrogance may have peaked with the Bush administration. The Obama administration should usher in an era of honest diplomacy. It would be shocking to see a continuation of the disdain that the Bush administration had towards diplomacy in the new Obama administration. Until the American State Department treats Iran as a respectable partner, and not like a rogue state, the crisis will continue to disintegrate. The U.S. must also realize that Russia has a vested interest in the region. Low level, multilateral talks may serve as the spring board to higher level direct negotiations.
Israel’s role in the process
The recent victory by the Kadima Party in Israel will create more pressure on the Obama administration to negotiate with a more forceful tone. The disastrous showing of the left wing Labor Party in the recent elections reflects the political mood in Israel. The ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party will wield immense power as a result of its strong finish. This shift to the right in Israel will make negotiations with Iran very delicate. It would not be surprising if the Iranians, as a precondition to any nuclear negotiations, request that the United States formally recognize the existence of Israeli nuclear capabilities. In President Obama’s first news conference, he carefully dodged the Israeli nuclear question that was posed by reporter Helen Thomas. If the United States is serious about dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it must seriously consider and effectively address the region’s suspicions of Israel’s capabilities. Israel follows a policy of deliberate ambiguity in neither confirming nor denying possession of nuclear weapons. Yet, it is considered the region’s worst kept secret. Should the Iranians put the Israeli question on the table and the United States side steps the issue, the negotiations will be dead in the water and a sham.
Development of Iranian nuclear capabilities is of great concern for the United States, in the context of the balance of power in the region and its relationship with the State of Israel. Any negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program should also include Israel’s nuclear capabilities. Approaching this dilemma in an even handed and fair manner may just be the strategy for long term peace in the region and mutual security in the region.
A Nuclear Iran
Today marks the 55th anniversary of President’s Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” speech at the United Nations. The speech was designed to lessen global fears of nuclear technology amid the escalating war of words between the US and the Soviets. In the half century plus since the speech, there have been over two thousand nucear weapons tests and at least 4 nations have joined the nuclear club. Yet, it seems that there is a potential member whose membership in this club is deeply troubling to the west.
President Eisenhower
The Iranians have been marching towards nuclear power for nearly half a century, dating back to the days of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. Up until the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Ayatollah Khomeini, western nations, namely the United States, Germany and France were actively engaged in supplying Iran with nuclear technology. Once the Ayatollah assumed power, contracts to build nuclear power plants were nullified and the flow of nuclear technology ceased, thus forcing Iran’s nuclear program underground.
Ayatollah Khomeini
No one is really sure if the Iranians possess any highly enriched Uranium. What is known that they do possess a fair amount of low-enriched uranium that can be used be weaponized.
The Iranian move towards nuclear power has been evolving since the 1950’s. With the help of the United States and France, the Iranian Within decades, the Iranians will soon become an oil importer as their reserves become depleted. As with any country on this planet (including ours), their concern over energy independence has become an issue of national security.
Nuclear Power Plant in Bushehr
From a geopolitical standpoint, to assume that the State of Israel is better suited to handle the “Iranian problem” is troubling. To defeat the Iranians militarily would cause a major imbalance in the power structure in the region and probably cause a major cultural shift within the country itself. This would not be desirable for anyone. We cannot simply lump Iran into the convenient parcel of just another hostile Arab nation. The Iranians pride themselves in their Persian heritage and are very comfortable in distancing themselves from their Arab neighbors. With the Iraq invasion debacle as historical precedent, one would be remiss in not considering our lack of understanding of the region as a primary reason for the current heightened state of hysteria.
President Ahmadinejad
Though the country is ruled as a theocracy, the overwhelming majority of its citizens are moderates. Unfortunately, we (our government) have failed over the years to engage the more moderate elements of their society. This was clearly evident in our reluctance to engage the reformist president, Seyyed Mohammad Khatami during the late 80’s and early 90’s. Though he angered both conservatives and reformers alike during his presidential terms, he was not the attention grabbing hardliner that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is. It will be interesting to see if and what type of tacit support the West will provide to Khatami, should he run against Ahmadinejad in the June 2009 general elections.
Khatami
Military action against Iran through direct US surgical air strikes or allowing Israel to do so would be a major gamble at best. If there were ever a time and a place to have diplomatic boots on the ground, it would be now and in Tehran.
Read an update (2/13/09) to this post at:
https://lastpersonleft.wordpress.com/2009/02/13/irans-nuclear-program-obama-and-israel/
Last Person Left 